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Partin Coefficient Tables:
Prediction of Probability of Organ-Confined Disease
Last Revised May 14, 1997
Introduction | Example
PSA = 0.0-4.0 ng/ml | PSA
= 4.1-10.0 ng/ml | PSA = 10.1-20.0 ng/ml
| PSA = 20.1 ng/ml or more
Introduction
The following four tables give data which allow you or you doctor to
predict the probability that you have organ-confined prostate cancer on
the basis of your Gleason score, your PSA value, and your clinical
stage. Be careful to use the table which is based on your PSA value.
Note that the data given in these four tables are roughly the reverse
of the data in the tables predicting
the probability of a patient having established capsular penetration.
Example
Cecil is a 59-year-old man with a PSA of 59.3 ng/ml and a Gleason
score of 4 + 5 = 9. His doctor has categorized his clinical stage as T2c
since he could clearly feel what appeared to be abnormalities in both
lobes of Cecil's prostate on DRE.
Using the table for PSA values more than 20.0 ng/ml,
we find that Cecil has only a 3% likelihood of organ-confined disease
(equivalent to a 97% probability of established capsular penetration).
In other words, it is all but certain that the cancer has penetrated
into Cecil's prostate capsule.
Prediction of
Probability of Organ-Confined Disease
PSA = 0.0-4.0 ng/ml
| Gleason score |
Stage T1a |
Stage T1b |
Stage T1c |
Stage T2a |
Stage T2b |
Stage T2c |
Stage T3a |
| 2-4 |
90 |
80 |
89 |
81 |
72 |
77 |
... |
| 5 |
82 |
66 |
81 |
68 |
57 |
62 |
40 |
| 6 |
78 |
61 |
78 |
64 |
52 |
57 |
35 |
| 7 |
... |
43 |
63 |
47 |
34 |
38 |
19 |
| 8-10 |
... |
31 |
52 |
36 |
24 |
27 |
... |
All numbers represent percent predictive
probabilities (95% confidence interval); ellipses indicate lack
of sufficient data to calculate probability. |
Prediction of
Probability of Organ-Confined Disease
PSA = 4.1-10.0 ng/ml
| |
Gleason score |
Stage T1a |
Stage T1b |
Stage T1c |
Stage T2a |
Stage T2b |
Stage T2c |
Stage T3a |
| 2-4 |
84 |
70 |
83 |
71 |
61 |
66 |
43 |
| 5 |
72 |
53 |
71 |
55 |
43 |
49 |
27 |
| 6 |
67 |
47 |
67 |
51 |
38 |
43 |
23 |
| 7 |
49 |
29 |
49 |
33 |
22 |
25 |
11 |
| 8-10 |
35 |
18 |
37 |
23 |
14 |
15 |
6 |
All numbers represent percent predictive
probabilities (95% confidence interval); ellipses indicate lack
of sufficient data to calculate probability. |
Prediction of
Probability of Organ-Confined Disease
PSA = 10.1-20.0 ng/ml
| Gleason score |
Stage T1a |
Stage T1b |
Stage T1c |
Stage T2a |
Stage T2b |
Stage T2c |
Stage T3a |
| 2-4 |
76 |
58 |
75 |
60 |
48 |
53 |
... |
| 5 |
61 |
40 |
60 |
43 |
32 |
36 |
18 |
| 6 |
... |
33 |
55 |
38 |
26 |
31 |
14 |
| 7 |
33 |
17 |
35 |
22 |
13 |
15 |
6 |
| 8-10 |
... |
9 |
23 |
14 |
7 |
8 |
3 |
All numbers represent percent predictive
probabilities (95% confidence interval); ellipses indicate lack
of sufficient data to calculate probability. |
Prediction of
Probability of Organ-Confined Disease
PSA = > 20.0 ng/ml
| Gleason score |
Stage T1a |
Stage T1b |
Stage T1c |
Stage T2a |
Stage T2b |
Stage T2c |
Stage T3a |
| 2-4 |
... |
38 |
58 |
41 |
29 |
... |
... |
| 5 |
... |
23 |
40 |
26 |
17 |
19 |
8 |
| 6 |
... |
17 |
35 |
22 |
13 |
15 |
6 |
| 7 |
... |
... |
18 |
10 |
5 |
6 |
2 |
| 8-10 |
... |
3 |
10 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
All numbers represent percent predictive
probabilities (95% confidence interval); ellipses indicate lack
of sufficient data to calculate probability. |
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